Market Risk Regime Monitor
A composite 0–100 indicator of current market stress conditions, shown alongside historical stress periods such as the Dot-Com bust, 2008, the COVID shock, and the 2022 tightening cycle. This is a risk indicator, not a forecast.
Several indicators have moved into the upper half. Conditions may be choppier than usual.
Risk indicator
Score 60 / 100, currently in the Elevated band.
Risk indicator, not a forecast.
Indicator breakdown
How each input contributes to the overall risk score. These are components of a risk indicator, not individual forecasts.
How stretched equity valuations look vs. long-run norms are running hot relative to history — a condition often associated with risk-off regimes.
Realised and implied volatility across major equity indices have moved into the upper half of historical readings, which has historically coincided with choppier markets.
Corporate credit spreads and signs of funding stress have moved into the upper half of historical readings, which has historically coincided with choppier markets.
How broadly stocks participate in the current trend have moved into the upper half of historical readings, which has historically coincided with choppier markets.
Trend strength and risk of momentum unwinds have moved into the upper half of historical readings, which has historically coincided with choppier markets.
Growth, policy and global liquidity conditions are running hot relative to history — a condition often associated with risk-off regimes.
Positioning and crowd sentiment extremes have moved into the upper half of historical readings, which has historically coincided with choppier markets.
Historical similarity
How today's indicator profile compares to canonical historical stress periods. Similarity is a lens, not a forecast that the same outcome will repeat.
1999–2000 Dot-Com Bubble
1999 – 2000 · Tech bubble
- Volatility risk: today 50/100 vs. 55/100 then — both elevated.
- Momentum risk: today 59/100 vs. 70/100 then — both elevated.
- Market breadth: today reads markedly lower than then (53 vs. 78).
- Sentiment risk: today reads markedly lower than then (57 vs. 88).
Today's indicator profile shows a strong resemblance (78/100) to the 1999–2000 Dot-Com Bubble. That regime was historically associated with: stretched valuations, narrow tech-led leadership, weakening breadth. Historical similarity is a lens for asking better questions about positioning — it is not a forecast and does not imply the same outcome will repeat.
2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis
2007 – 2008 · Credit crisis
- Momentum risk: today 59/100 vs. 70/100 then — both elevated.
- Volatility risk: today reads markedly lower than then (50 vs. 90).
- Credit stress: today reads markedly lower than then (43 vs. 95).
Today's indicator profile shows a moderate resemblance (67/100) to the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis. That regime was historically associated with: credit stress, funding pressure, financial-sector contagion. Historical similarity is a lens for asking better questions about positioning — it is not a forecast and does not imply the same outcome will repeat.
2020 COVID Crash
Q1 2020 · Liquidity shock
- Valuation risk: today 69/100 vs. 60/100 then — both elevated.
- Macro / liquidity risk: today 68/100 vs. 78/100 then — both elevated.
- Volatility risk: today reads markedly lower than then (50 vs. 98).
- Credit stress: today reads markedly lower than then (43 vs. 80).
- Market breadth: today reads markedly lower than then (53 vs. 85).
Today's indicator profile shows a moderate resemblance (70/100) to the 2020 COVID Crash. That regime was historically associated with: sudden volatility spike and short-lived liquidity shock. Historical similarity is a lens for asking better questions about positioning — it is not a forecast and does not imply the same outcome will repeat.
2022 Rate-Hike / Tech Drawdown
2022 · Rate-hike drawdown
- Valuation risk: today 69/100 vs. 70/100 then — both elevated.
- Macro / liquidity risk: today 68/100 vs. 80/100 then — both elevated.
- Sentiment risk: today 57/100 vs. 65/100 then — both elevated.
- Most indicators are roughly in line with that period's typical readings.
Today's indicator profile shows a strong resemblance (88/100) to the 2022 Rate-Hike / Tech Drawdown. That regime was historically associated with: liquidity withdrawal, duration-led drawdown, growth derating. Historical similarity is a lens for asking better questions about positioning — it is not a forecast and does not imply the same outcome will repeat.
Explanation
Why the score is what it is, and what it does and does not mean.
The current Market Risk Regime score is 60/100, which falls in the "Elevated" band. In plain English, several indicators have moved into their upper half. Conditions are not unusual in modern markets but may indicate a regime of higher volatility ahead — not a guaranteed downturn.
The biggest contributors to today's score are valuation risk (69/100, high), macro / liquidity risk (68/100, high), momentum risk (59/100, elevated). By contrast, credit stress (43/100) is the calmest input.
Important: this score is a *risk indicator*, not a forecast. It compresses several market and macro signals into one number to help you ask the right questions about your portfolio — it does not predict whether the market will go up or down on any given day.
- Valuation risk69 · High · stable
- Macro / liquidity risk68 · High · rising
- Momentum risk59 · Elevated · stable
Today's profile most resembles 2022 Rate-Hike / Tech Drawdown at a similarity of 88/100. That regime was historically associated with the conditions listed under its card. Historical similarity is a lens for asking better questions, not a forecast that the same outcome will repeat.
The Market Risk Regime Monitor summarises several market and macro signals into a single risk indicator. Elevated readings describe conditions historically associated with stress. They do not predict whether, when, or by how much markets will fall. Treat this as one input alongside your own analysis and your risk tolerance.
The Market Risk Regime Monitor is an educational risk indicator built from mock data while the macro feeds are wired up. It describes risk conditions historically associated with elevated market stress. It is not a forecast, not a guaranteed prediction, and should not be the only input to any investment decision. Always consider your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.